USD/THB: Down trend resuming

The strong recovery of the past months is petering out at the 50% retracement and cloud resistance coinciding around 33.50<>33.52. The expected dip will tell a lot about the longer term direction of the market. For now, the recovery is labelled as a complex counter trend move (i.e. bearish). However, setting a new base in the region of 31.80/31.85 could very well lead to a secondary recovery and eventual switch in the long term down trend.

Our own focus is on the former outlook; we prefer a bearish stance and expect a larger correction back to 31.80, 31.10 and the setting of new lows on a 6-12 month horizon. Our conviction is moderate at best, so keep stops nearby: do not allow for a push above 33.52.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: negative
  • Outlook: recovery ending, resumption of down trend
  • Strategy: hold-short or trading short-entry
  • Support: 31.80 / 31.10 / 30.85*
  • Resistance: 33.52 / 34.55+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 33.52

Weekly chart US Dollar / Thai Baht (USD/THB)

20 April 2018 – Recovery coming

The near term chart shows all signs of a bullish breakout. Clearing 31.303 triggers a new (intraday) uptrend towards 31.54, 31.81 and perhaps a tat higher. Such a rally is nevertheless classified as a counter trend rally within the longer term down trend. Moreover, it will be the first noteworthy recovery since the down trend commenced in Q4-2016<>Q1-2017. Weekly resistance levels come in at 31.58, 31.91 up to 32.30.

So despite the significant upside potential the overall trend remains negative for the USD. Buying is justifiable but with elevated risk; no certainty that the projections will me reached and trading against the main trend. So much needs to be done to change the long term trend that we won’t go into that now.

  • Near term trend: neutral (positive > 31.303)
  • Long term trend: negative
  • Outlook: recovery likely
  • Strategy: exit-short and/or trading-buy
  • Support: 31.107 / 30.858*
  • Resistance: 31.303 / 31.54 / 31.58 / 31.91 / 32.30+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: below 31.107

Weekly chart US Dollar / Thai Baht (USD/THB)

22 March 2018

The strong performance of the Thai Baht versus US Dollar is possibly coming to an end.  The long-term down trend is nearing the major 262% extension level at 30.858 while momentum is fading away and divergence is setting in. All signs that the down trend is slowing, or, as a minimum enter a recovery phase.

Cover existing shorts and stand aside. Alternatively, maintain trailing stops at 31.58 or max 31.91.

  • Primary trend: negative (late phase)
  • Outlook: consolidation and recovery likely
  • Strategy: exit-short or use trailing stops nearby
  • Support: 30.858*
  • Resistance: 31.58 / 31.91 / 32.30+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Weekly chart US/THB