US Bond Yields Update

An overview of the generic 2-year, 10-year and 30-year USA Government Bond yields.

All comments regard yields, not bonds: “new uptrend” = uptrend in yields and thus a bear market in bonds.¬†


2-year yields

The strong trend has lost some momentum. The near term outlook has switched to neutral. Even though a minor correction could take place it is unlikely that this will trigger a substantial reversal on the longer term. Leeway to the down side is considerable before the primary trend is challenged; only below 2.206% things become tricky for the long-term trend.

  • Near term trend: neutral
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook:¬†consolidation in uptrend
  • Strategy: hold-long and/or buy dips
  • Support: 2.55% / 2.32% / 2.206% / 2.026%
  • Resistance: 2.70%+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 2.206%

Daily chart US 2-year Yields

10-year yields

The choppy consolidation of the past few months occurs within the longer term uptrend. On a 6-12 month horizon higher yields are still expected even though the yields must clear 3.013% in order to signal a resumption of this primary uptrend. Until such a breakout occurs the outlook is rather neutral.

Only below ~2.64% the outlook turns negative.

  • Near term trend: neutral
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: temporary pause/consolidation in uptrend
  • Strategy: hold-long with trailing stops
  • Support: 2.80% / 2.733% / 2.645% / 2.55%
  • Resistance: 3.18% / 3.285%
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 2.645%

Daily chart US 10-year yields

30-year yields

The longer term chart offers a very interesting situation. The major peaks from 2015 through 2016, 2017 and 2018 are hovering above the market at ~3.20%. Will this zone be breached? If so, the longer term outlook becomes significantly more bullish with rallies to 3.85%+ and even 4.35% coming into the picture.

We rate the chance of a successful breakout quite high as long as (near-term) support around 2.915% remains unbroken.

  • Near term trend: neutral
  • Long term trend: moderately positive
  • Outlook: major barrier, exceedingly bullish above ~3.20%
  • Strategy: hold-long, expand above 3.20%
  • Support: 2.915% / 2.88% / 2.69%
  • Resistance: 3.20% / 3.85% / 4.35%+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: 2.88%

Weekly chart US 30-year yields