UK Bond Yields Update: Very significant developments

An overview of the generic 2-year, 10-year and 30-year British Government Bond yields.

All comments regard yields, not bonds: “new uptrend” = uptrend in yields and thus a bear market in bonds. 

2-year yields

Although bullish, we see a much more important shift in sentiment on the 10 year and 30 year yields. For the 2-year yields we maintain a positive stance as long as 0.724% and max 0.69% hold as trailing support. On the upside 0.94% and 1.01% for the first levels of some significance. Note that breaching the 1%-zone will signal a huge breakout on the long-term outlook; a decade long barrier will then be taken out, creating a ‘vacuum’ to the upside of enormous potential. 1.6% and 2.064% are merely first reference points.

  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: uptrend
  • Strategy: hold-long, buy-dips
  • Support: 0.724% / 0.69%
  • Resistance: 0.94% / 1% / 1.60% / 2.064%
  • Major shift in sentiment: below 0.69%

Daily chart UK 2-year Yields

10-year yields

The new higher base above the broken trend line of 2013 in combination with strong daily dynamics, suggest a break above the pivots at 1.56% are a mere formality. Clearing 1.56% significantly boosts the slumbering bullish outlook, opening the road for a rally towards 2.05% and even 2.70% on a 12-month basis.

  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: positive, velocity increases above 1.56%
  • Strategy: stand aside
  • Support: 1.22% / 1.207%
  • Resistance: 1.56% / 2.05% / 2.70%+
  • Major shift in sentiment: below 1.22%

Weekly chart UK 10-year yields

30-year yields

The outlook has turned significantly bullish with the recent break above the multi-tested trend line and daily pivots at 1.88%. A new primary uptrend has taken hold with leeway to 2.15% (minor) and the first major projection level around 2.517%. Both potential and momentum are significant, making long-yields and excellent strategy.

  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: new primary uptrend, positive
  • Strategy: long-yields
  • Support: 1.70% , 1.635%-
  • Resistance: 1.88% / 2.15%+
  • Major shift in sentiment: below 1.88%

Weekly chart UK 30-year yields