Turkey 10-yr Government Bond: Cooling down

With yields still holding well above 19% the market obviously remains extremely weak. We do see some consolidation on the very near term, making some sort of recovery or consolidation likely. A real change in long-term direction is (very) remote but large shorts are probably best partially covered or otherwise protected for the time being.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: late phase down trend
  • Strategy: exit-short or trailing stops
  • Support: 67.87 / 63.91-
  • Resistance: 73.87 / 78.88 / 87.50 / 90.63+
  • Major shift in sentiment: above 87.50 (!)

Daily chart Turkey 10-year Government Bonds

31 July 2018

With yields nearing 19% one could easily speak of a total collapse of the bond market. Momentum is obviously very high and the most important projection (@86.52) has been surpassed by a considerable margin. No reliable levels are to be found at this point.

We suggest holding shorts with tight trailing stops and see how far the market can carry. Beware of intervention and extreme moves.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: late phase down trend
  • Strategy: hold-short with trailing stops
  • Support: 87.42 / 86.52* / ?
  • Resistance: 87.50 / 90.63+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 87.50 (!)

Daily chart Turkey 10-year Government Bonds

4 July 2018

With yields nearing 17% one could easily speak of a total collapse of the bond market. Momentum is obviously very high and the most important projection (@86.52) has been surpassed by a considerable margin. No reliable levels are to be found at this point.

We suggest holding shorts with tight trailing stops and see how far the market can carry. Beware of intervention and extreme moves.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: late phase down trend
  • Strategy: hold-short with trailing stops
  • Support: 87.42 / 86.52* / ?
  • Resistance: 87.50 / 90.63+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 87.50 (!)

Daily chart Turkey 10-year Government Bonds

10 April 2018

Bonds are nearing the pivot lows at 87.42 and the long-term projection at 86.52. A slowing of the trend and/or basing is expected. Cover shorts around the target (or at least 50% of them) and use tight trailing stops (max 90.63) on the remainder.

The ‘juice’ part for the long term trend is behind us, making trading increasingly difficult with an substantial increase in risks.

  • Primary trend: negative (late phase)
  • Outlook: late phase down trend, nearing targets
  • Strategy: hold-short with trailing stops, cover around target
  • Support: 87.42 / 86.52*
  • Resistance: 90.63 / 94.20 / 95.45+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 90.63

Daily chart Turkey 10-year Government Bonds

5 March 2018

The recent recovery is classified as a complex counter trend recovery. Now that bonds have peaked out at the 38.2% retracement and selling on the daily trend resumes, significantly lower levels are once again likely. Trigger for this negative outlook lies at 92.40. Clearing this level opens the road towards 87.42 and out price projection at 86.52 (2-4 month target).

Only a rally above 95.45 can ease the negative outlook.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: resumption of long-term downtrend, negative
  • Strategy: hold-short and/or short-entry < 92.40
  • Support: 92.40 / 89.15* / 87.42 / 86.52*
  • Resistance: 94.20 / 95.45 / 96.50
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 95.45

Daily chart Turkey 10-year Government Bonds