Spain 10 Yr Yields: Major upmove underway

Note: all comments regard yields, not bonds: “new uptrend” = uptrend in yields and thus a bear market in bonds. 


The near term outlook is turning bullish again, bringing yields back to the main barrier at 1.555%. Clearing this area completes the complex and drawn-out consolidation pattern of the past 20 months. A new primary uptrend can finally commence towards 1.88% (minor target) and the much more significant and distant 2.98% area.

Momentum is picking up, increasing the validity of an expected major upmove for yields.

  • Primary trend: neutral
  • Outlook: reversal & positive > 1.555%
  • Strategy: long-yields > 1.555%
  • Support: 1.222% / 1.155% / 0.89%
  • Resistance: 1.555% / 1.88% / 2.98% / 3.998%
  • Major shift in sentiment above 1.555%

Weekly chart Spanish Government 10yr Bond Yields

1 August 2018 – Grudgingly neutral

Complacency remains the name of the game in Spain. The spread versus most Northern European countries has hardly changed.  As long as yields remain below the zone around 1.59<>1.60 we must be technically (and grudgingly) neutral. Do we trust the situation? Absolutely not…

  • Primary trend: neutral
  • Outlook: major reversal & positive > 1.60%
  • Strategy: long-yields > 1.60%
  • Support: 1.368% / 1.155% / 0.89%
  • Resistance: 1.60% / 1.88% / 2.98% / 3.998%
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Weekly chart Spanish Government 10yr Bond Yields