Rice Update: Trend collapses

12 AUG 2018

Prices are all over the place. The most important development as we see it is the collapse of the initial bullish undertone and the move well below the critical support at 1204. A retest of the very major pivot cluster around ~940 is the minimum to expect. A move below this area cannot be excluded due to the highly bearish momentum and timing of the recent sell-off.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: total collapse of trend, highly fragile
  • Strategy: avoid at all costs
  • Support: 930
  • Resistance: 1120 / 1300+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized n/a

Weekly chart Rough Rice (CBOT, front month)

9 APR 2018

The near term consoldiation is coming to an end with the break above 1255. The underlying uptrend resumes towards the first hurdle at 1420<>1422 and potentially even higher on a 9-12 month horizon. Although we prefer Corn (open position) and Soymeal, Rough Rice is a good long-entry candidate for the near term as well as longer term.

  • Primary trend: positive
  • Outlook: trend continuation, positive
  • Strategy: long-entry
  • Support: 1204 / 1165
  • Resistance: 1255 / 1420 / 1422*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 1204

Weekly chart Rough Rice (CBOT, front month)

6 MAR 2018

The consolidation the past weeks occurs at the early stage of a long-term uptrend and well above cloud support. Now that buyers are making an intraday push to breach resistance at ~1255 things should become interesting. Closing above 1255 triggers a second long-entry signal towards 1420<>1422 and potentially even higher on a 9-12 month horizon.

Although we prefer Corn and Soymeal, Rough Rice is a good long-entry candidate for the near term as well as longer term.

  • Primary trend: positive
  • Outlook:¬†consolidation in uptrend, trend continuation > 1255
  • Strategy: long-entry > 1255
  • Support: 1204 / 1165
  • Resistance: 1255 / 1420 / 1422*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 1204

Weekly chart Rough Rice (CBOT, front month)