NOK/SEK Update: Breakout failure

A breakout failure has occurred. The rapid, fierce and certainly convincing return of the market below former pivots is a major sign of weakness and will almost certainly lead to a larger correction over the coming days and weeks as initial buyers are squeezing through the exit.

A drop back to roughly 1.0750<>1.0700 is expected. Beware of the setting of a new peak against the 1.1030 again; this will increase pressure even more especially on the longer term. NOK/SEK is a certain exit-long. Trading shorts are also justifiable.

  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: breakout failure, negative
  • Strategy: exit-long / trading short
  • Support: 1.0750 / 1.0700-
  • Resistance: 1.1030 / 1.1110 / 1.1435*
  • Major shift in sentiment: below 1.07 or above 1.1110

Weekly chart Norwegian Krone vs Swedish Krona

21 June 2018

Bullish dynamics for NOK is picking up steam. The internal trend line has been taken out and a new higher base has been set. We expect a continuation towards target 1 (C-1 on chart) at 1.1435 and ~1.19 thereafter.

Note that the second projection (C-2) comes in at a whopping 1.2345 (12+ month horizon). In any case, upside potential is considerable on all time frames. On the down side 1.0625 and 1.0400 form very considerable support.

  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: new primary uptrend, positive
  • Strategy: hold-long / buy dips
  • Support: 1.0625 / 1.0530 / 1.0400
  • Resistance: 1.1435* / 1.1900 / 1.2345*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 1.0625

Weekly chart Norwegian Krone vs Swedish Krona

17 May 2018

Even though the market having some difficulty with the resistance zone around 1.09 (pivots 2016 + internal trend line), the undertone remains bullish and higher levels are still expected over the next 3-6 months. A minor dip is allowed up to 1.0530 without altering the outlook and undertone too much.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook:┬áconsolidation in uptrend, trend continuation is expected
  • Strategy: hold-long / buy dips
  • Support: 1.0530 / 1.0250
  • Resistance: 1.09 / 1.1290+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 1.0530

Weekly chart Norwegian Krone vs Swedish Krona