India 10yr Bond Yield: Losing power

Note: rising yields = declining bond prices. 


The strong uptrend is losing conviction just above the main projection at 8.05% region. Divergence is setting in making a period of profit taking and consolidation highly likely before a new major move is undertaken. Exit-long yields and stand aside; some reshuffling seems in order. Alternatively, tighten stops to max 7.71%.

  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook/expectations: end of uptrend?
  • Strategy: exit-long yields
  • Support: 7.71% / 7.60% / 7.15%
  • Resistance: 8.02%* / 8.995%* / 10.55%*
  • Major shift in sentiment: below 7.60%

Weekly chart India 10yr Bond Yield

30 July 2018 – Trend Intact

Yields are holding at the 8.05% area. A minor dip is allowed without altering the underlying uptrend. Our focus remains on the strong projection around 8.995% before we expect a more serious challenge to the yield-bulls.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook/expectations: correction in uptrend
  • Strategy: hold long-yields
  • Support: 7.60% / 7.15% / 6.82%
  • Resistance: 8.02%* / 8.995%* / 10.55%*
  • Outlook neutralized: below 7.60%

Weekly chart India 10yr Bond Yield

6 April 2018

The projection at 8.02% has also been hit and a counter trend phase has taken hold. A decline towards 7.259% or (max) 6.99% can be expected before yields head higher again. It could easily take a few weeks before things cool down, so it is probably prudent to avoid the market for now.

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook/expectations: correction in uptrend
  • Strategy: avoid
  • Support: 7.16% / 6.98% / 6.82%
  • Resistance: 8.02%* / 8.995%* / 10.55%*
  • Outlook neutralized: below 7.16%

Weekly chart India 10yr Bond Yield