German Bund Future: Significant deterioration…

Bearish momentum is picking up substantially after dipping below the cloud support. Pressure on the pivots at 160.20 is the least to expect. Clearing this area triggers a short-entry signal targeting 157.65 for the near term and potentially ~154 thereafter. More importantly, reaching the latter target also means a new primary down trend has taken hold, so the potential on 12+ months is even lower (new targets cannot yet be calculated at this point).

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: neutral/negative
  • Outlook:┬ásignificant deterioration, negative
  • Strategy: short-entry < 160.20
  • Support: 160.20 / 158.25 / 157.65
  • Resistance: 162.70 / 163.50 / 165.50 / 168.85+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 163.50

Daily chart Bund future (continuous contract)

29 May 2018 – Back to neutral

The flight to ‘safety’ from Southern Europe into Northern Europe is in full swing, causing significantly higher Bund prices (same development in NL and to a much lesser extend in GB). The intraday outlook has turned bullish even though the upside is littered with resistances from 162.05 up to 163.50. Here the cloud and trend line of 2016 coincide.

Due to the current market dynamics a break higher is rather likely, opening the road to 165.50 and the old pivots at 168.85. We see the rally as a precautionary move and do not see it as an inherently stable/profitable investment and will not invest on the buy-side. For pure trading, risk/reward is too unfavourable.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: neutral/negative
  • Outlook:┬ástrong recovery, choppy, uncertain
  • Strategy: avoid
  • Support: 160.20 / 158.25 / 157.65
  • Resistance: 162.05 / 163.50 / 165.50 / 168.85+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

420-minute intraday chart