German Bond Yields Update

An overview of the generic 2-year, 10-year and 30-year German Government Bond yields.

All comments regard yields, not bonds: “new uptrend” = uptrend in yields and thus a bear market in bonds. 

2-year yields

Note: Negative yields are printed in red. We have omitted the ‘minus’ sign for clarity. 

Buyers have taken over after clearing the main barrier at 0.529%. Chances for a move above the more important 0.48% barrier have increased significantly. In other words, the market is gunning for a major shift in sentiment and probable new primary uptrend. This bullish undertone remains in place as long as 0.585% holds as new support area.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: bullish undertone increasing
  • Strategy: add to longs / buy > 0.48%
  • Support: 0.585% / 0.642% / 0.662%
  • Resistance: 0.529% / 0.48% / 0.162%
  • Major shift in sentiment: above 0.48%

Daily chart German 2-year Yields

10-year yields

Strong improvement has set in after the successful break above 0.483%. Expect a retest of the major hurdle at 0.763% soon. Momentum is good and the broader yield markets supportive; chances of a move well beyond 0.757% are quite high. Note that we consider such a latter scenario as extremely bullish.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: moderately positive
  • Outlook: new uptrend, positive
  • Strategy: long yields
  • Support: 0.425% / 0.375%
  • Resistance: 0.763% / 1.065%* / 1.361%*
  • Major shift in sentiment: below 0.375%

Daily chart German 10-year Yields

30-year yields

The significant improvement within the 2-yr and 10-yr is not yet visible on the 30-yr bonds. Yields are still struggling with the cloud resistance while the “super pivots” at 1.382% remain completely unchallenged. The near term does have a slight bullish bias, but we need to see a move beyond aforementioned levels (notably 1.382%) before a true primary uptrend can take hold.

  • Near term trend: moderately positive
  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: neutral, still uncertain
  • Strategy: avoid
  • Support: 0.953% / 0.851%
  • Resistance: 1.226% / 1.382% / 1.548% / 1.724%
  • Major shift in sentiment: above 1.382%

Weekly chart German 30-year Yields