EUR/AUD Update: Nearing major pivots

The near term is obviously highly bullish, but the weekly chart remains relatively neutral. There is a stubborn resistance zone around 1.6135 <> 1.62 that needs to be taken out convincingly before buyers get enough room for medium and longer term entries. Until a breakout occurs the undertone is moderately bullish and strong enough only for the aggressive trader to accumulate.

In case of a successful breakout upside potential is significant; our initial projections come in at 1.6735. Below 1.5610 the outlook fades to strictly neutral again.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: bullish undertone, not much room (yet)
  • Strategy: avoid or trading-buy
  • Support: 1.5610 / 1.5270
  • Resistance: 1.6135 / 1.6735*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized n/a

Weekly chart EUR/AUD

29 MAY 2018 – High intensity down trend

The high intensity down trend has just surpassed the first target at 1.5410. The next target comes in at 1.5140 which is well into the weekly cloud support and about mid-way the lengthy and highly volatile weekly trading range.  Hold short and add-short on rallies if they occur; there is still significant room to the down side before real support can be expected.

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: fierce correction, negative
  • Strategy: hold-short / sell rallies
  • Support: 1.5410 / 1.5140* / 1.4645-
  • Resistance: 1.5580 / 1.5650 / 1.5790
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 1.5650

420-minute Intraday chart EUR/AUD

2 MAY 2018

The vicinity of the weekly pivots at 1.5930 has enticed sellers back into the market. A double peak on the 420-minute intraday chart suggests a near term bearish phase, especially once the trigger at 1.5945 is taken out. A decline back to roughly 1.5645 can then be expected.

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: slightly positive/neutral
  • Outlook: correction in larger consolidation
  • Strategy: aggressive short-entry < 1.5945
  • Support: 1.5945 / 1.5645 / 1.5455 / 1.5430
  • Resistance: 1.6150
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 1.6150

420-minute Intraday chart EUR/AUD

13 MAR 2018

A minor recovery could get under way after hitting the substantial support at ~1.5625. However, dynamics have become quite unfriendly over the past days, so the setting of a new lower peak in the 1.5750-area is expected. Such a new lower peak should trigger a serious test of the mentioned support zone, and indeed, significantly increase the chance of a break below. 1.5455<>1.5430 then becomes the main focal point.

An aggressive short-entry on the bounce towards (max) 1.5750 is justifiable. Note that the longer term outlook is rather fuzzy and does not really contradict a near-term short.

  • Intraday trend: neutral/negative
  • Outlook: lower peak and breakout likely
  • Strategy: aggressive short-entry on bounce
  • Support: 1.5625 / 1.5455 / 1.5430
  • Resistance: 1.5750 /
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 15.10

420-minute Intraday chart EUR/AUD