BTC/USD: Even more unconvincing…

Without a doubt the recent moves have been nasty and caught many people off guard. For a new/future/potential currency the liquidity available remains an issue, so such moves will be something that traders have to cope with. If you can’t stand the heat, stay away from the fire (as we do in the case of crypto’s).

From a technical viewpoint the false breakout is potential quite bearish. Former buyers into the rally probably still need to cover is pain gets too much. We expect a retest of the key lows around 6160 up to 5845 over the coming days. Needless to say a break below this area is exceedingly negative for the following months. Zooming in on the 180-min chart one can see the bulls are not completely gone yet as long as 6580 holds as intraday support. However, the larger outlook gives the bulls very significant headwinds and thus we remain highly critical of any bullish forecast. Continue to avoid. If left with no choice, we would prefer to enter-short rather than buy. And this is for the relative outperformer among major crypto’s…

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: 0,0 credibility, re-test of support
  • Strategy: avoid or trading short-entry
  • Support: 6160 / 5845-
  • Resistance: 7190 / 7550 / 8415 / 10320*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Daily chart Bitcoin / US Dollar (BTC/USD via Bitfinex)

10 October 2018

After several weeks of consolidation – at relatively crucial levels – the market fails to show any bullish conviction. So rather than follow through on quite bullish and favourable  ingredients, the market didn’t even attempt a breakout rally. This is a sign of underlying weakness or (minimally) lack of conviction.Bitcoin

We remove the bullish bias and return to completely neutral.

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: lack lustre at critical moment –> neutral
  • Strategy: avoid
  • Support: 6160 / 5845-
  • Resistance: 6810 / 7190 / 7550 / 8415 / 10320*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Daily chart Bitcoin / US Dollar (BTC/USD via Bitfinex)

21 September 2018

Earlier basing has resulted in a rather strong return of the crypto bulls. This development is seen across the board, further increasing the chances of a success breakout above the resistance line and cloud resistance converging around the 7190-area. A successfully breakout will mean a major shift in sentiment of the near and medium terms alike. A rally back to 8380 and 10320 then becomes highly likely.

Do not allow for a drop back below ~6100.

  • Trend: neutral/basing
  • Outlook: trend reversal, positive > 7550
  • Strategy: long-entry > 7550
  • Support: 6160 / 5845-
  • Resistance: 7190 / 7550 / 8415 / 10320*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Daily chart Bitcoin / US Dollar (BTC/USD via Bitfinex)

4 September 2018

Pressure has subsided, resulting in a consolidation pattern within the moderate down trend of the past months. Although this is an improvement, it doesn’t make the market automatically bullish. For this the multi-tested trend line around  7545<>7550 must be cleared convincingly. Also, a higher base above the cloud at 7105 is very welcome as confirmation of the (possible) new uptrend.

Neutral for now but BTC/USD is back on the watch list for a potential long-entry. We suggest 50% at breakout above resistance  and the remainder after a pull-back and new support. Dropping below 6650 after a breakout cancels the bullish scenario.

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: possible trend reversal, positive > 7550
  • Strategy: stand aside, long-entry > 7550
  • Support: 6105 / 6650 / 5845-
  • Resistance: 7550 / 8415 / 10320*
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Daily chart Bitcoin / US Dollar (BTC/USD via Bitfinex)

22 August 2018

Earlier attempts to trigger a recovery have vanished. Alt-coins outperformed BTC slightly earlier in the week, but are now getting hammered even harder and thus remains technically by far the weaker players in the crypto scene (major alt-coins, we disregard the 1k+ tiny alternatives). Clearly sellers remain in the driving seat and investors should prepare for a re-test of the recent lows around 5850. Chances of a move beyond these levels is considerable and, more importantly, down side risk is substantial. We do not see any noteworthy support until roughly 3800.

With stops above 7000 we believe this market is worth a trading-short entry at current levels.

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: again increased pressure, negative
  • Strategy: trading short-entry or avoid
  • Support: 5850 / 3800-
  • Resistance: 6980 / 7140 / 8390+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized:above 6980

420-min Intraday chart Bitcoin / US Dollar (BTC/USD via Bitfinex)

14 August 2018

Things have become rather tricky with the recent declines. Although some sort of correction was allowed after the strong rally in July, the ensuing dip was far to deep for comfort. Consequently, we have removed BTC from the buy-dip list and decided to keep a fair distance from the market and await further developments.

Other crypo’s have shows very substantial weakness and it BTC has been a relative outperformer. It is nevertheless uncertain if it can withstand the onslaught elsewhere. Dipping below ~5850 speeds up bearish activity towards 3800 and lower.

Due to poor risk/reward we do not suggest shorting the market at this point. Avoid and observe…

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: very uncertain
  • Strategy: avoid
  • Support: 6565 / 3800-
  • Resistance: 6767 / 7140 / 8390+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

26 July 2018

Our previous price target of 7693 (see 17 July below) has been hit. Some profit taking can be expected before the market heads higher again. As long as buyers mange to hold levels above the zone 7315<>7120 the outlook remains relatively friendly for the next weeks.

The long-term outlook remains doubtful and vulnerable, so we consider all buying only interesting for near-term investors/traders. Perhaps this will change over the coming weeks, but thus far we have too many doubts to expect a “20k+”move any time soon.

  • Trend: positive
  • Outlook: moderate uptrend, positive
  • Strategy: buy the dips
  • Support: 7315 / 7120 / 6565-
  • Resistance: 7693* / 8640 / 9855+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 7120

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

17 July 2018

The lack lustre trading since mid-June has resulted in a basing pattern after months of declines. Chances of a reversal and recovery phase are big. This idea is further supported by the contours of a Head & Shoulder reversal pattern on the 480-minute chart below. Clearing the neck line (now in progress) should trigger a decent rally towards 7693. Here the 162% extension and pattern projection level roughly coincide.

With stops below ~6460 the outlook is certainly worth buying into. Note that we have considerable doubts about the long-term trend. We need to see a lot more dedication and rallies over the coming weeks and months to take away our wariness. The current outlook is nevertheless a decent step towards a possible change in focus over the longer term.

  • Trend: neutral/basing
  • Outlook: uptrend above 6720
  • Strategy: trading long-entry > 6720
  • Support: 6460 / 6100-
  • Resistance: 6720 / 7693* / 8640+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 6460

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

13 June 2018

Our scenario of early June has been completed: the old pivots lows around 6450 have been hit. Things have once again become much more difficult now that the major move on the 420-minute chart has been completed. A short period of ‘shuffling’ is likely before a major move is once again undertaken. Some consolidation (couple of hours up to perhaps a few days max) is expected around the 6450-mark.

For the longer term we remain quite bearish. We do expect a move beyond the aforementioned 6450-pivot area. Our main concern from a pure trading perspective is when will this break occur: directly or after a considerable bounce? Although we see the first option as more likely (65% chance), the alternative could be highly costly since prices have up to ~9800 before the negative outlook significantly changes. In other words, the outlook is relatively clear but trading/risk strategies are quite difficult.

We suggest (and undertake ourselves) the following: Cover 60% of existing shorts now. Maintain the rest with a trailing stop above 6920. If/once prices break below 6200 we will re-enter short to 100% with stops (for all) at 6700. Focus points on the down side: 5120 and the 4450-area.

Note that for real improvement (all time frames) much is needed so we do not really focus on that at this point.

  • Trend: negative
  • Outlook: major target hit, bounce or continuation…
  • Strategy: hold-short / short-entry below 6200
  • Support: 6450 / 5120* / 4450
  • Resistance: 6920 / 7265 / 7750+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 6920

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

4 June 2018

The counter trend phase of the past days remains in play. Thus far prices have not even moved above the first retracement, which reflects substantial lack of demand despite the relatively large draw down of May. Peaking around 7735 is certainly bearish, making a re0-test of the main pivots around ~6450 extremely likely.

Note that a counter trend usually rallies above the 23.6% level (>75% of times), so an extension of the counter trend up to 8140 cannot be excluded. Trading wise, we suggest keeping in place a short-entry trigger at 7550<>7560.

Only above 8475 things improve enough to cancel our bearish outlook.

  • Trend: negative
  • Outlook: deeper correction, negative
  • Strategy: hold-short / short-entry below 7550
  • Support: 7550 / 6600* / 6450-
  • Resistance: 7735 / 8140 / 8475 / 9380+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 8475

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

17 May 2018

The recent correction is rather deep and has surpassed our preferred support zone around 8800. The ‘last’ major retracement at 8200 is now under pressure and there are no signs that it will hold out for too long. In other words, we expect a deeper correction towards 7650 and 6600.

Hold shorts (if any) and use trailing stops (>8535). See how far the market will carry before some sort of bounce occurs. Much is needed for a new buy-signal, so our focus is not on the buy-side for the time being; exit-short at best…

  • Trend: negative
  • Outlook: deeper correction, negative
  • Strategy: hold-short with trailing stops
  • Support: 7650* / 6600*
  • Resistance: 8535 / 9380 / 9680 / 10335+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 8535

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

7 May 2018

The recent rally was very welcome for the longer term outlook. After hitting the major projection at 6618 (see our outlook of April) the market had to move higher in order to avoid a very considerable weakening for the longer term. The ensuing bounce gave hope that the long-term trend could finally continue higher. However…

The current wavering occurs at completely the wrong point. The minor consolidation in late April should have pushed prices well beyond the intermediate peak at ~9650 with healthy momentum. None of that is visible and prices have even dropped back below the breakout level with bearish divergence being the result. Chances are pretty big that a much larger correction is again around the corned. Expect weakness towards 8880<>8800. Clearing this zone speeds up bearish activity towards 7680 and probably lower on a 2-4 week horizon. Much more important is that such a move once again brings into doubt the long-term health of BTC.

We are covering longs and avoiding the market. Below 8800 we are entering some shorts with trailing stops focusing on 7680 (and potentially lower).

In all, things are not looking good at the moment.

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: very questionable and tricky
  • Strategy: exit-long and avoid, short-entry < 8880<>8800
  • Support: 8880 / 8800 / 7650* / 6600*
  • Resistance: 9680 / 10335+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 9680

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

6 April 2018

Our target of 29 March has been reached. The ‘easy’ part is over and things are becoming difficult. We strongly suggest to cover 50% of shorts and to adjust trailing stops to 7450.

As stiff fight is expected around current levels. Breaching 6600 (zone!) convincingly will be highly detrimental for all time frames. 3510 or so then becomes the next major level to watch out for. On the other side, recovering above 7450<>7500 should ease pressure considerably and offer the bulls some longer term reprieve.

As said, trading will not be easy over the next hours/days; “make-or-break’ levels are not for the feint of heart…

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: mature down trend – make or break
  • Strategy: 50% exit-short + trailing stops
  • Support: 6618* / 6282 / 3510-
  • Resistance: 7500 / 8095 / 8555+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 7500

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

29 March 2018

Support has failed and the underlying down trend since late February continues to drive prices lower. The next projection comes in at 6618 which is roughly equal to the weekly cloud support. A stiff fight should follow around that level (allow for overshooting – trading will not be easy). Failing to set a solid base around 6618 would be exceedingly bearish for all time frames.

Existing shorts can be maintained with trailing stops. We do suggest covering 50% or so if/once 6618 is reached due to the importance of that area.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: mature down trend
  • Strategy: hold-short with trailing stops
  • Support: 6618* / 6282 / 3510-
  • Resistance: 8095 / 8555+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 8555

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

 

4 October 2017

The multi year uptrend remains firmly in place. However, on the near term we do expect a period of consolidation and considerable profit taking before buyers make a new push higher. Indicators are extremely overbought (obviously) and divergence on the near term suggests imminent profit taking. Such a consolidation/counter trend phase can easily bring price back to about 2945. Note that such a decline does not even make the market bearish but due to the very large draw down risk an exit-long strategy is justifiable.

  • Primary trend: positive
  • Outlook: consolidation in uptrend, profit taking
  • Strategy: exit-long and avoid
  • Support: 3570 / 2945 / 1920
  • Resistance: 4495 / 4935

Daily chart Bitcoin/USD

Daily chart Bitcoin/USD. Click to enlarge

 

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